Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans — Grizzlies short favorite in injury-laden tilt
Matchup Preview
Memphis visits New Orleans in a matchup that looks closer on the surface than the betting lines suggest. Across major books the Grizzlies are the favorite on the moneyline (roughly -160 to -170) and are getting about a 3.5-point nod on the spread, while totals sit around 235–235.5. Venue information isn’t provided in the data here, but the headline story is the long injury lists for both teams — several players are listed out or day-to-day, which creates real uncertainty about rotations and minutes.
This game is interesting because both clubs are moving forward into the night with notable absences. That can flip matchups, create new primary ball-handlers and open opportunities for role players who otherwise would have smaller minutes. With the market favoring Memphis but the spread only 3.5, it’s a classic spot where depth and in-game adjustments ought to decide the outcome.
What Could Decide the Game?
Availability will be the dominant factor. New Orleans has multiple players listed as out, including Dejounte Murray (explicitly out for Friday) plus Trey Murphy III, Trendon Watford and others. Memphis also has a cluster of outs — notably Zach Edey is listed out for the game, along with Quinten Post, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Richie Saunders — while several other players are day-to-day.
How each coaching staff reshuffles rotations and who steps into playmaking and scoring roles will matter most. If either team can replace lost minutes with efficient scoring and limit turnovers, that team gains a big edge. Interior availability is another variable: with Edey out for Memphis, New Orleans’ frontcourt options (to the extent they’re available) could have more influence on the glass and paint scoring. Finally, with totals pushed into the mid-230s, pace and bench scoring will determine whether games stays high scoring or grinds down.
What Are the Betting Lines Telling Us?
Books generally show Memphis as the favorite on the moneyline (around -160 to -170) and the spread is -3.5 in their favor across outlets. DraftKings’ moneyline moved sharper toward Memphis (from -141 to about -162), while some spread markets opened wider (around -4.5) and settled at -3.5 — that change represents the favorite becoming a smaller favorite on the spread. Totals have ticked up from the low-230s into the 235 area, indicating sportsbooks expect a modestly higher combined score than earlier offers.
The mixed movement — ML leaning toward Memphis while spreads tighten — reflects differing opinions across books about how much the listed absences affect each team's ability to cover versus simply win.
The ParlayGeeks Take
This is a gamesmanship contest more than a pure matchup of stars. The single biggest determinant is who replaces the lost minutes and handles late-clock decisions; the next is interior availability with Edey out and multiple Pelicans listed as out or day-to-day. The market is correctly treating Memphis as the safer straight-up pick, but the narrow spread shows bettors aren’t taking a heavy leap.
If you believe Memphis’ depth can absorb Edey’s absence and still control the game, the moneyline is straightforward. If you think New Orleans’ list of outs — particularly an unavailable Dejounte Murray — will limit their offensive cohesion, the Grizzlies covering 3.5 seems plausible. Conversely, if you expect the Pelicans to cobble together a workable rotation and exploit Memphis’ missing bigs, the Pelicans +3.5 has real appeal. With so much uncertainty tied to availability, this feels like a game where getting the latest scratches and minute announcements will matter more than any pregame projection.
